How the hot jobs report could affect the real estate market

According to the BLS, the U.S. added 303,000 jobs in March, outpacing February’s rate of 270,000 jobs, and coming in higher than the average 231,000 monthly job additions over the previous 12 months.
March’s job gains came from health care (+72,000), government (+71,000), and construction (+39,000) sectors. The unemployment rate fell slightly to 3.8%, continuing to hover between 3.7% and 3.9%.
Average hourly earnings increased by 4.1% year over year, well above the inflation rate of 3.2%, signaling a strong labor market.

Our take

We are thrilled by these numbers, especially the ones from the labor market. We’ve not seen unemployment numbers this low for so long since the Nixon administration! At the same time, we know this could cause the Fed to delay its first interest rate cut, keeping mortgage rates higher for longer. Already a consensus is building that the Fed might only cut twice or even just once this year. It’s crunch time now. Keep an eye on these dates:
  • April 10th – CPI Inflation stats are released
  • April 25th – GDP numbers are released
  • April 16th – PCE inflation stats are released
  • April 30th – May 1st – Fed’s next meeting
Those reports will give us a strong sense of where the market and the Fed are headed next.