Mortgage Rates Forecast to Fall Faster than Expected

The rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage is expected to fall to 5.5% at the end of the year, according to Bloomberg’s survey of 236 economists and other real estate professionals. If it pans out, that’d be more than a full percentage point decline from its current level of about 6.69%, and the first annual decline after three straight years of gains.
Fannie Mae, likewise, has just revised its 2024 mortgage forecast. The company now expects that the 30-year fixed mortgage rate will fall to 5.8% by the end of the year.
  • 6.4% in Q1 2024 (previously 7.0%)
  • 6.2% in Q2 2024 (p: 6.8%)
  • 6.0% in Q3 2024 (p: 6.6%)
  • 5.8% in Q4 2024 (p: 6.5%)

Our take

As much as we are excited about these projections, we’re a little more cautious. We think it’s most likely that mortgage rates will remain in the 6’s throughout all of 2024 and then only dip below that barrier in 2025. We know that’s what a lot of people want to hear, but this is all still good news. And if we’re wrong, we couldn’t be happier. Everything is heading in the right direction, and we should all capitalize on this opportunity.


James and David, The Blueprint

January 30, 2024